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| Evaluation of the Effects of Cultivated Land Protection Policies in China Based on Policy Q |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2020.09.020 |
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】The study was to quantitatively evaluate the effects of cultivated land protection policies in China from 1996 to 2017 through policy quantification, and to calculate the contribution rate of cultivated land protection policies. Then an evaluation of the effect of cultivated land protection policies in China was carried out to provide references for developing and strengthening cultivated land protection policy system.【Method】The policies related to cultivated land protection in 1996-2017 were quantified from three aspects of policy strength, policy objective, and policy measure, and the annual cultivated land protection policy intensity index during the study period was calculated, then a multiple linear regression analysis model was constructed on the combination of the cultivated land area and social and economic factors that related to cultivated land protection. On the basis of combing the development history of cultivated land protection policies in China, the effects of cultivated land protection policies from 1996 to 2017 was quantitatively analyzed according to the model.【Result】From 1996 to 2017, cultivated land protection policies in China had protected the equivalent of 1.59% of cultivated land in 2017, accounting for 24.47% of the total decrease in cultivated land area from 1996 to 2017; from 1996 to 2003, cultivated land protection policies in China had protected 18.14% of the total decrease in cultivated land area from 1996 to 2003; from 2003 to 2017, cultivated land protection policies in China had protected the equivalent of 0.70% of cultivated land in 2017, accounting for 44.37% of the total decrease in cultivated land area from 2003 to 2017. 【Conclusion】Cultivated land protection policies in China are effective, and they have played an important role in the cultivated land protection work for more than 20 years. It needs to be persisted for a long time. After a long period of accumulation and development, cultivated land quantity protection policy system in China has gradually been improved after 2003. In the future, while putting more effort to the quality and ecological protection of cultivated land, the protection of the quantity of cultivated land should continue to be maintained or strengthened. |
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