| 【Objective】In recent years, with the gradual implementation of important agricultural product security
strategies, the Party and the State attach great importance to the development of natural rubber industry. The supply and
demand situation and price trend of natural rubber and other strategic agricultural products are paid more and more attention
from all sectors of society. Especially, since the outbreak of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia, it is of great importance to build
a new development paradigm featuring dual circulation, in which domestic and international markets reinforce each other.
Natural rubber is an important strategic material in China and futures markets are maturing, therefore, it is imperative to
study the relationship between domestic and foreign price fluctuations of natural rubber.【Method】With the statistics data
of the natural rubber at home and abroad since 2010 from Ministry of Commerce, the unit root test and Granger test, impulse
response model, analysis of variance model are used to analyze fluctuation rule and inner link of the natural rubber futures
and spot prices at home and abroad, and the future trend of supply and demand for natural rubber is forecast.【Result】It is
found that the domestic futures price of natural rubber affects both the domestic spot price and the change of the international
futures price. The increase of the domestic futures price will have a positive impact on the foreign futures price and domestic
spot price, but the influence of the international futures price is nearly 10 times than that of the domestic futures price. The discovery effect of domestic futures price is stronger and the radiation force of price is stronger and stronger.【Conclusion】
Based on the relationship between the futures and spot price fluctuations in natural rubber at home and abroad, some policy
suggestions are put forward to improve the competitiveness of natural rubber industry, such as the precise support policy for
optimizing natural rubber production reserves, monitoring and early warning of natural rubber market and strengthening of each
link of natural rubber industry chain. |
