文章摘要
Disaster Index and Risk Analysis of Continuous Rain for Rape During Anthesis in Sichuan Basin, China
  
DOI:10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2021.11.018
Author NameAffiliation
郭 翔,赵金鹏,李旭毅,王茹琳  
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Abstract:
      【Objective】Aiming at the occurrence of continuous rain disasters during spring in the of Sichuan Basin, a comprehensive-risk analysis and evaluation of continuous rain for rape during anthesis was carried out so that it can provide a scientific basis for the research of regional disaster prevention and mitigation and disaster insurance. 【Method】Based on the meteorological data of 105 meteorological observation stations in the Sichuan Basin between 1981 and 2020, combining with the observation data of rape production, agricultural statistics and basic geographic information, four assessment indexes(hazard, exposure, vulnerability and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity)were quantitatively evaluated, and the evaluation models were established. Base on the formation mechanism of natural disaster risk, a comprehensive risk assessment model was established and used for risk division.【Result】The higher-hazard areas concentrated in the paralleled ridge-valley region of eastern basin, the rolling terrain of southern basin and the southwest of basin edge; the exposure index of shallow hilly region of central basin was the highest; the distribution of higher-vulnerability areas was dispersed and relatively concentrated in the rolling terrain of southern basin and the plain terrain of western basin; the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of western basin and southern basin were stronger; the comprehensive higherrisk areas of continuous rain disaster during anthesis of rape concentrated in the eastern basin, southern basin and central basin, and lower-risk areas concentrated in the middle plain terrain of western basin and basin edge; moderate-risk areas were the most widely distributed, the total area of which was over 45 percent of cultivated land area in the Sichuan Basin.【Conclusion】The results were consistent with the climatic background of Sichuan Basin and temporal-spatial distribution of agrometeorological disasters, which could present and explain the risks of continuous-rain for rape during anthesis in Sichuan Basin.
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