| 【Objective】The study was carried out to empirically evaluate the impacts of RCEP tariff concessions on the export of agricultural products to RCEP members in the Greater Bay Area, and provide policy implications for the Greater Bay Area to seize opportunities of RCEP to expand agricultural exports.【Method】The difference between the agreed tariff rates within 5 years of the RCEP's entry into force and effective tariff rates in 2021 were compared to identify tariff reduction of agricultural products imported from China by other members under the RCEP, and the tariff elasticity method was used to calculate the impact of tariff reduction on the export of agricultural products in the Greater Bay Area based on the product department with HS 4-digit code.【Result】Among the agricultural products exported in the Greater Bay Area, in the first year of the RCEP coming into force, 69 agricultural products are expected to be positively promoted by tariff concessions. Assuming that other factors remain unchanged, tariff concessions are expected to increase the total exports by 34.50% compared with those in 2021. In five years, a total of 80 kinds of agricultural products will be affected by tariff concessions, and the export volume is expected to increase by 48.20% over 2021; within five years after the entry into force of the RCEP, the tariff concessions faced by agricultural exports mainly come from Japan and Korea, so the promotion effect of tariff concessions is expected to mainly come from Japan and Korea, and a small amount of other growth comes from Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Cambodia, and etc. Due to the differences in the scope and elasticity of tariff concessions, the promotion effects of tariff concessions on different categories of products are greatly different. Within five years after the entry into force of RCEP, the export growth effects of tariff concessions rank in the top ten categories of products, including 1211, 1604, 2103, 4409, 0301, 4412, 3503, 2005, 1302 and 2403.【Conclusion】In order to seize the opportunity of RCEP tariff concessions to expand agricultural exports, we should attach importance to the export promotion of agricultural products to Japan and Korea, support the production and export of advantageous agricultural products with large tax reduction effect and export basis and accelerate the promotion of agricultural product export facilitation. |
