| 【Objective】The study on the change characteristics of cultivated land area and its influence on grain production pattern in key watersheds aims to provide reference for promoting the sustainable use of cultivated land and coordinating the relationship between food security and economic development. 【Method】Taking 82 counties in key watersheds of Sichuan Province as the research unit, using mathematical quantization model and GIS spatial analysis method, this paper explores the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of cultivated land area and its influence on the change of grain production pattern in the study area in recent 20 years. 【Result】(1) From 2001 to 2020, the cultivated land area in the key watersheds of Sichuan Province increased by 915,700 hm2, with an increase rate of 37.39%, but showed a changing trend of “increase→ basically unchanged→ decrease→ basically unchanged” in different economic development periods. (2) The change of cultivated land area showed a spatial agglomeration state of “high-value cluster area” and “low-value cluster area” in the key watersheds of Sichuan Province , and the changes in quantity of these areas
showed an inverted “N” type fluctuation trend in different economic development periods. (3) The spatial transfer types of grain production (grain production transfer out area, grain production transfer into area and grain production stability area) in the key watersheds of Sichuan Province showed a fluctuating trend of increase and decrease in quantity. In general, the area of grain production transferred out and transferred into increased by 13.42% and 13.41%, respectively, and the change trend was basically unchanged. However, the grain production stability area decreased significantly, down by 26.83%, and there was regional degradation in grain production. (4) The change of cultivated land area is an important cause of the spatial transfer of grain production in the key watersheds of Sichuan Province, and the counties that are sensitive to the change of cultivated land area show the characteristics of centralized and multi-point distribution. 【Conclusion】 The change of cultivated land area and its impact on grain production pattern in the key watersheds of Sichuan Province from 2001 to 2020 fluctuated significantly in different periods of economic development. Therefore, countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to strictly implement the cultivated land use control system, strengthen the cooperative management of regional competent departments, establish the long-term benefit compensation mechanism of cultivated land conservation, and construct the cultivated land security early warning and control mechanism. |
