| By the methods of spatial constant coefficient Regression and ESDA-GWR, this paper in-depthly analyzed the patterns of grain production in Shanxi province at county level. The results showed that, grain production of Shanxi province at county level had the phenomenon of spatial autocorrelation and agglomeration. The extent of spatial autocorrelation and spatial agglomeration of grain production changed heavily from 1990 to 2001. The spatial autocorrelation coefficient of grain production commenced to decline from 2002 to 2011, but it showed stably. The overall distribution pattern appeared to the features of agglomeration effect and spatial heterogeneity. Local spatial correlation patterns of grain production had two major types including “HH”and “LL”, which mainly were located in the northwest and southwest of Shanxi province and remained relatively stably, the overflow effect of grain production was not obvious. Through analyzing the impact factors of grain production, on one hand, we found grain output, agricultural labor and previous grain production were the most significant factors to affect grain production, the agricultural mechanization was not significant and grain production relied on the factor of labor deeply. On the other hand, we found these factors including grain output, agricultural labors, previous grain production and per capita GDP had heterogeneous effect. Except the factor
of previous grain production, other factors mostly had positive or negative effects on grain production in Shanxi province at county level. It needs to plan grain production at local conditions, and enhance the regional coordination between impact factors and grain production. |
