| 易永力 1，彭九慧 1，赵春雷 2.露地大白菜低温冻害气象指数保险费率厘定方法研究[J].广东农业科学,2020,47(5):145- |
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露地大白菜低温冻害气象指数保险费率厘定方法研究 |
| Determination Method for the Insurance Rate of Meteorological Index of Cold Damage to Chinese Cabbage in Open Field |
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| DOI：10.16768/j.issn.1004-874X.2020.05.018 |
| 中文关键词: 气象指数保险 起赔阈值 低温冻害概率 赔付比例 保险费率 |
| 英文关键词: meteorological index insurance compensation threshold probability of cold damage compensation ratio insurance rate |
| 基金项目:137 |
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| 摘要点击次数: 1737 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 【目的】为科学厘定露地大白菜低温冻害保险费率提供方法，为其他气象因子指数保险的保险费率厘定提供参考，为政策性农业保险的可持续发展提供助力。【方法】将 1957—2018 年每年初、终霜冻日期转化为儒历日，计算平均初、终霜冻日期，将平均初、终霜冻日期设定为低温冻害指数保险中的时间起赔阈值，并利用标准差分级法，对起赔阈值设置的合理性进行检验。精确统计大白菜各生长期投入成本，根据灾损率进行加权计算得出赔付比例。通过计算发生概率、灾损率与赔付比例 3 个因子综合得出露地大白菜低温冻害保险费率，并对种植区域进行加权计算，得出区域内的露地大白菜低温冻害保险费率。【结果】设计了露地大白菜低温冻害气象指数保险中时间和气温起赔阈值的计算方法，并制定了时间起赔阈值的检验方法。设计了低温冻害保险费率 3 个决定因子发生概率、灾损率和赔付比例的计算方法。【结论】经过检验，将平均初、终霜冻日期设定为丰宁满族自治县地区露地大白菜低温冻害气象指数保险的时间起赔阈值是合理的。露地大白菜在遭受轻、中、重三级低温冻害时的灾损率分别为 0.3、0.7 和 1.0；发芽期赔付比例最高为 45%，秧苗期赔付比例最高为 75%，莲座期以后赔付比例最高为 100%。各乡镇露地大白菜低温冻害气象指数保险费率为 2%~3%，经过加权计算得出丰宁满族自治县地区低温冻害保险费率为 2.14%。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 【Objective】The study is to provide a scientific method for determining the insurance rate of cold damage to Chinese cabbage in the open field. It also has a reference to the determination of the insurance rate of other meteorological indexes, and provides assistance for the sustainable development of policyoriented agricultural insurance.【Method】The frost dates of the beginning and the end of each year（1957-2018）were converted into Julian days. Through calculation, the average frost dates of the beginning and the end of each year were obtained, which were set as the time thresholds for the cold damage index insurance, and the rationality of the threshold setting was tested by using the standard deviation classification method. The input costs of Chinese cabbage in various growth periods were counted accurately, and the compensation ratio was calculated according to the disaster damage rate. Through the calculation of occurrence probability, disaster damage rate and compensation ratio, the insurance rate of cold damage to Chinese cabbage in open field was obtained, and the weighted calculation for planting area was carried out to get the insurance rate of cold damage to Chinese cabbage in open field of planting area.【Result】The calculation method of the time and temperature thresholds for the freezing injury meteorological index insurance of Chinese cabbage in open field was designed, and the test method of the time threshold was established. The calculation method of three decisive factors of cold damage insurance rate -occurrence probability, disaster damage rate and compensation ratio was designed.【Conclusion】It is reasonable to set the average initial and final frost dates as the time thresholds for the cold damage meteorological index insurance of Chinese cabbage in the open field of Fengning Manchu Autonomous County. The damage rates of the Chinese cabbage in open field are 0.3, 0.7 and 1.0 when it suffers from the light, medium and heavy freezing injury. The highest compensation rate is 45% in the germination period, 75% in the seedling period and 100% after the rosette period. The insurance rate of the meteorological index of cold damage to Chinese cabbage in the open field of each town is 2%-3%, and the cold damage insurance rate in Fengning Manchu Autonomous County is 2.14% by weighted calculation. |
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